So far this week, I’ve looked at all the teams who missed the finals in 2023, and decided whether they’ll improve to become a finals contender, or still just be making up the numbers in 2024.
I’ve tipped Hawthorn (yes, really!) and Geelong to be the two new teams to make it to September at the end of the season, which means one thing: two of last year’s top eight have to make way.
But while it’s natural to expect the teams ranked 5th-8th last season to face a much tougher battle to keep their spot than those in the top four, things are rarely that simple in the AFL. Of last year’s September also-rans, we have two recent finalists in St Kilda and Sydney, and two more teams which reached the top four only to crash out in straight sets in Melbourne and Port Adelaide.
The odds say at least one of those four will drop out of the eight entirely in 2024: the only question is, which one?
Sydney
8th, 12-1-10, 110%, lost elimination final
Seemingly destined for a dynasty after a youthful side made it all the way to the grand final in 2022, the Swans very nearly became the latest example of a team sent spiralling into disarray by a big dance thrashing in 2023.
Only winning six of their last seven games – one thanks to a hugely controversial last-minute hit the post call against Adelaide – helped them scrape into September at all, and while they pushed an eventual preliminary finalist in Carlton to the limit, an elimination final exit makes this the third time in John Longmire’s last four finals series his team has failed to reach the second week.
The great Lance Franklin has retired, and the Swans’ midfield has been decimated heading into 2024, with Callum Mills out for half the season while Luke Parker and new recruit Taylor Adams will also be sidelined for the first few rounds. For a side which already had an on-ball weakness when it comes to contested footy, those are three major absentees.
Granted, Brodie Grundy’s arrival gives the Swans a top-notch ruck option for perhaps the first time since trading Shane Mumford to GWS a decade ago – with apologies to great servants in Tom Hickey and Mike Pyke – while Adams should be a fine acquisition to help bolster their midfield stocks. Equally, their young guns remain the envy of the competition, in particular star pair Chad Warner and Errol Gulden.
All the same, the Swans are the easiest team of last year’s finalists to make a case for them missing the eight; facing a tough start to the season already with games against Melbourne and Collingwood in their first few rounds, a sluggish start before their stars return could leave them playing catchup football for much of the season. Although, as they proved in 2017 and 2023, if any team in the AFL can recover from a nightmare start to a campaign, it’s Sydney.
Tom Papley. (Photo by Matt King/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
Prediction: 10th
St Kilda
7th, 13-10, 107.8%, lost elimination final
The Saints were one of 2023’s most fascinating clubs to watch: in Ross Lyon’s first season of his second stint at the club, expectations were well and truly defied – and repeatedly so – as they reached September for just the second time since Lyon defected to Fremantle at the end of 2011.
Despite at times seeming near certain to crash out of the eight, most notably during a four-loss stretch in five games mid-season, the Saints were one of three teams to stay in a finals position on the ladder for all 24 rounds, with a home final the reward.
Despite a relatively limp finish to the year, losing their elimination final to GWS, people have started to become more bullish about the Saints heading into 2024. A blemish-free off-season, two high-quality practice match performances and the continued development of their young stars seems to suggest St Kilda are a team on the rise.
Lyon has an outstanding record in second seasons at clubs: in 2008, the Saints made a preliminary final after finishing the eight in his freshman year, while at Fremantle in 2013, he took them to the first and to date only grand final in their history. Lyon-coached teams rarely get worse for having had a year to learn his methods and adhere to his structures.
Conceding the fewest points of anyone in the 2023 home-and-away season, Lyon’s Saints have a penchant for miserliness: ally that to the hints of slicker, quicker ball movement displayed in their two trial matches, and the Saints should be heading into the new season optimistic about backing up their top eight finish – and quite possibly, reach even greater heights.
Like, say, winning a final in Melbourne for the first time since 2010.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/AFL Photos/via Getty Images )
Prediction: 5th
Melbourne
6th, 16-7, 125.2%, lost semi final
The Demons have made the top four in three consecutive seasons in what has become their strongest era since the 1960s: the only issue is that in two of those seasons, they have crashed out of the finals with two successive losses.
2023 was particularly shattering, losing their qualifying and semi finals combined by just nine points to end a frustrating season in the cruellest of fashions.
The Dees still appear to have just about the best list in the league: Clayton Oliver, Max Gawn and Christian Petracca are the most lethal on-ball trio in the game, while down back, Steven May and Jake Lever have plenty of years left to marshal the defence that in 2021 was nearly impossible to get through.
It seems this summer, most pundits have focussed more on their weaknesses, though: ball movement struggles getting the ball towards an underwhelming forward line the key on-field one, Oliver’s mental health and behavioural issues the off-field one.
No doubt they are key issues that could potentially derail a season, but with Oliver named to face Sydney in the season opener, and with the Dees looking far slicker during the pre-season, with a greater desire to move the ball quickly and kick penetratingly inside 50 rather than just blazing, it suggests plenty of work has gone in to cover both bases.
The only question is whether the Dees have passed their prime, and whether a premiership window that has been open since midway through 2021, is now slammed shut.
They play Sydney in Sydney, the Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide in Adelaide in their first month – no doubt we’ll no more about whether they remain a potent force by the end of that stretch.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Prediction: 6th
Port Adelaide
5th, 17-6, 112.7%, lost semi final
How to judge Port Adelaide’s 2023? On the one hand, they responded brilliantly to missing the eight in 2022 by storming into the top four and winning a club record 13 AFL games in a row.
But on the other hand, things got significantly worse after that – coincidentally close to Ken Hinkley signing on as long-term coach to end months and years of speculation his time was up – with the result a pair of finals losses far more emphatic than those copped by Melbourne.
It’s incredibly hard to get a read on the Power this pre-season: they have looked impressive enough, and Connor Rozee and Zak Butters’ midfield brilliance will win them games for years to come, but there are weaknesses on their list that last year’s top four rarely showed.
Dejected Port Adelaide players walk from the ground after a loss. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
Then there’s the fact that with his contract signed, the pressure on Hinkley that seemed to inspire the Power last season to do it for their coach has been dissipated; who knows what psychological affect that will have on the club and their finals prospects.
Ultimately, the Power have too much talent – see Butters, Zak and Rozee, Connor for more information – to fall from entrenched in the top four to out of the eight entirely, especially with Brandon Zerk-Thatcher and Esava Ratugolea shoring up a backline that was ultra-vulnerable this season.
Port and expectations don’t go hand in hand, though, so this tip could very easily backfire on me like tipping them to miss the eight did for me 12 months ago!
Prediction: 7th