The Roar’s AFL expert tips and predictions, Round 13: Can the Dees respond to week from hell in King’s Birthday blockbuster?

There were two big winners out of a weird and wonderful Round 12 of AFL action: Fremantle, and The Roar’s own Dem Panopoulos.

While the rest of us expert tippers were scrambling about trying – and failing – to so much as get half our tips right on a weekend full of upsets, Dem’s bold selections paid the ultimate dividends, earning him a rare perfect 7 – and in a tough week, no less.

That has seen him hurtle into the lead in our Expert Tips competition, ahead of season-long frontrunner The Crowd – and left us real people in the dust well behind.

Speaking of being left in the dust, there’s no team with more to prove in Round 13 than Melbourne – fresh off being pumped by the Dockers in the red centre, the Dees will take on Collingwood in a King’s Birthday blockbuster which now looms as being as crucial a contest as the game has seen in many a year.

Sitting ninth and tenth, the loser out of the two recent powerhouses will find themselves well adrift of the top eight – the stakes literally couldn’t be higher. So who gets the cream?

Tim Miller

Last week: 3

Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, West Coast, St Kilda, Sydney, Carlton, Melbourne

This is another one of those tricky weekends where every game carries an element of doubt to it – such is the evenness of this competition, few games are ever easy to lock in as tipsters.

The only simple choice is Adelaide on Thursday night against Richmond, in a game so rancid to consider that hopefully all those people who think the AFL were idiots to scrap the timeslot for the rest of the season change their minds.

Call me a sucker after it backfired last week, but I’ve again backed in majority home teams for this weekend, starting with my Bulldogs, who are in good form, should welcome back Tom Liberatore to become stronger on paper, and face a Brisbane outfit who are really just going at the moment.

No Sam Darcy, Aaron Naughton or Cody Weightman will make things tough for the Dogs to kick a winning score, but screw it: I have faith, and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan did kick five against this lot last time they played.

I’m loving everything about Hawthorn at the moment, and at their Launceston fortress they should be good enough to take down a Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly-less GWS to continue their surge towards the eight. Immediately afterwards, not even the absence of Harley Reid is enough to think North Melbourne can beat West Coast on the road – though if I’m Alastair Clarkson, I’m billing this as a grand final.

Saturday night is perhaps the toughest of the weekend to tip – Gold Coast have been excellent at home this year and dismal away, while the Saints have been largely mediocre wherever they’ve played but did have an impressive win over the Eagles on the road last week. I’m still unconvinced whether the Suns are any good – Saints for me.

A later start than usual on Sunday means we’ll have to wait a few extra hours to see Sydney add a plodding Geelong to their list of scalps; while on Sunday night, Essendon get the chance to cement themselves in the top two in a proper blockbuster against Carlton – but the Blues, despite a lesser win-loss record at the moment, are a better team.

Finally, we have King’s Birthday, and I’m going against my fellow tipsters here – the banged-up Collingwood are properly vulnerable, and if I’ve learned anything watching football over the years, it’s that a humiliating loss and a week of media scrutiny usually create a team determined to make a serious statement. Over to you, Melbourne…

Dem Panopoulos

Last week: 7

Adelaide, Brisbane, GWS, West Coast, Gold Coast, Sydney, Carlton, Collingwood

Nothing quite prepares you for the adulation, the universal love, the elevation to a higher plane that comes with getting every tip correct in a round. Listening to the chorus of the song “Fame” has a new meaning, relatable in ways that never seemed possible.

All jokes aside, the first bye round was fascinating in many ways, ladder shaping in others and while the Dockers delivered handsomely (thanks to readers for the feedback), there was no bigger winner than the Swans, who didn’t even play.

The Crows will demolish the Tigers to start the round, particularly with this whole Dustin Martin debacle at play. How dare he and the club want his 300th game to be played at the MCG! No player is bigger than the team and clubs should always be focused on winning.

What’s that, Richmond’s only one won game and that mostly with Dusty playing? Maybe old heads need to calm down a tad.

Bulldogs vs Brisbane is a really hard match to nail down. Both teams are stronger than they were last time they played – I’m leaning towards the Lions here, who aren’t all that good, but will look to make a statement in their run home.

The Hawks are playing well, that’s not overly surprising, but I suspect even in Tasmania, the Giants will be hungry to win the ball at ground level, which will be important here.

West Coast should bounce back against North – some handy inclusions loom, while another 50/50 contest presents itself on Saturday night. The Suns are better than the Saints, but they’re still not trustworthy away from home. They earn this tip, but only because the upside is better.

The Swans have the opportunity to open up a 2.5-game gap on the rest of the competition, which is extraordinary, and welcoming back Tom McCartin is huge. They should win easily against Geelong.

A Sunday night fixture in Melbourne is a strange one still! The Bombers have a lot to prove and Carlton want to make another statement. There’s potential this one gets wet, which only favours the Blues.

Finally, King’s Birthday is a public holiday here whether you’re a staunch monarchist or not. The Magpies have their injuries, the Demons have their embarrassing loss to Freo to contend with. Both teams, you’d suspect unexpectedly, find themselves outside of the top eight halfway through the season.

It’s a big one – I’m leaning towards the Magpies.

Cameron Rose

Last week: 2

Adelaide, Brisbane, GWS, West Coast, St Kilda, Sydney, Carlton, Collingwood

Brisbane are coming off a bye, and it’s now or never. If they haven’t galvanised themselves over the break and come out breathing fire against the Bulldogs, then what do they stand for as a club?

Last year’s grand final might prove the pinnacle of what they have achieved, and it’s all downhill from here.

The Giants off the bye will also have to have corrected themselves over the break – they have gone right off after a hot start to the year, and will need to be good to combat an in-form Hawks.

Carlton should be too good for Essendon in what may be a pivotal match for a top four position at the end of the year.

Liam Salter

Last week: 2

Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, West Coast, Gold Coast, Sydney, Essendon, Collingwood

So, Freo’s now the league’s offensive powerhouse. Don’t judge: they have the bye this week, and I had to drop a mention in somewhere. 

Wishing they have the bye, I’d imagine, are the Crows. A torrid season became much worse last weekend, and honestly, Thursday night’s clash against the Tigers is a significant danger game. Richmond should finally have some personnel back – Tom Lynch, Shai Bolton, Tim Taranto and Dion Prestia hopefully among the returns – but at home, I’m backing the embattled hosts. 

Are the Dogs good? Maybe? Are Brisbane? Does the Lions’ impressive recent run against the Dogs mean anything in 2024? Am I asking increasingly puzzling questions?

At the very least, the Dogs are in better form, and at Marvel, let’s go with them.

The Hawks are increasingly strong – genuinely, one of the more entertaining teams to watch over the past few weeks – yet the Giants, a better side in weaker form, are favourites. Screw it: I’m all aboard the Hawks train.

A Harley Reid-less West Coast, having lost a little momentum over the past fortnight, would have to be North’s best chance of a win this year. And yet I have so little faith – this is the Eagles’ to lose. 

Saturday’s night’s prime time game, apologies in advance, presents the Saints hosting Gold Coast. Last Saturday’s win was a relief, and the Suns can barely travel, but the Saints are wholly unconvincing and this should be another nail in the coffin.

The Swans, a cut above the rest and fresh off a bye, should do enough to see off the Cats, while the McKay-a-rama is finally here in the form of Dons v Blues (watch for a late change…).

This should be a beauty of a game, and the strongest opportunity yet for the Bombers to prove they’re bona fide contenders. Against every fibre in my body, I’m backing them.

And in the excellent Big Freeze game, I have zero clue. The Pies are injured. The Demons are apparently now bad. I just hope everyone has fun, and we raise plenty of funds to battle the insidious MND.

As for the result, the Pies will win in a close one. Naturally. 

Round 13TimDemCamLiamCrowdADE vs RCHADEADEADEADE?WB vs BLWBBLBLWB?HAW vs GWSHAWGWSGWSHAW?WCE vs NMWCEWCEWCEWCE?STK vs GCSSTKGCSSTKGCS?SYD vs GEESYDSYDSYDSYD?ESS vs CARCARCARCARESS?COL vs MELMELCOLCOLCOLLAST WEEK37224ROLLING TOTAL6270646368