As the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers prepare to face off on NFL Christmas, check out why this one bet is worth the wager.
Disclaimer: Never bet above what you can afford to lose. For some people that’s $100K, for others that’s $1. Let’s explore why we have a good chance to double whatever that number is today instead of losing it.
FACTS & TRENDS
Brown played in only 20 snaps last week (27%) which will likely increase as he recovers more (90%+ snaps last year)Brown o3.5 REC has hit in 32 of his last 43 games from 2021-24 (75%)Chiefs +11.5 has hit in 28 of their last 28 games (100%) since Week 6 of 2023Steelers -11.5 has hit in only 1 of their 7 games (14%) as an underdog in 2024 (won 37-15 vs. NYJ)
WHY IT HITS
$100K PARLAY FOR NFL CHRISTMAS IN WEEK 17 (-105):
LEG #1: Hollywood Brown o3.5 REC (-110)LEG #2: Chiefs +11.5 (-850)
1st Reason: This could be the last game Mahomes & Hollywood play together before the Playoffs so they’ll look to build a stronger rapport
2nd Reason: Hollywood got 8 targets in only 20 snaps last week. His snaps will surely increase in his 2nd game back which means his targets likely will as well
3rd Reason: Chiefs and Steelers rarely blow anyone out so +7.5 should be enough value as a one-score game is highly likely in this spot, but +11.5 barely decreased the odds and provides a little safety net for any backdoor covers
Every bet has a chance of not hitting but based on the value (-105 odds), this one is worth the wager. However, if it doesn’t hit, it’ll most likely be because of these reasons:
Hollywood’s Injury Concerns: Hollywood Brown could get injured again. He’s dealt with a variety of injuries which isn’t completely unexpected with his frame. If he misses any time in this game, that could significantly impact his opportunity to make 4 receptions or more. Although Xavier Worthy missed some time last game and still finished with 7 REC on 11 TGTs.
Chiefs Get Conservative: With two games left and only one win needed to secure the No.1 seed, the Chiefs could get ultra conservative on Christmas without wanting to reveal the best of their playbook against a potential foe they’ll face in a few weeks with much more on the line. If that’s the case, they might not get Hollywood Brown the touches that he’d warrant if this was a Postseason matchup.
No Chris Jones: Chris Jones is the Chiefs’ defensive leader and their only dominant force that consistently creates havoc in the backfield and forces the opposing QB to make poor decisions. With him not suiting up, that could give Russell Wilson ample amount of time to extend drives and give Najee Harris clear running lanes that allows them to run up the clock which would lead to fewer opportunities for Brown and the offense, and also help the Steelers take a lead beyond just 11 points.
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The post Worth the Wager: $100K Bet for NFL on Christmas 2024 appeared first on Pro Sports Outlook.