There are currently over 60,000 people on the waitlist for social housing in Victoria.

It’s a figure that already far outstrips the supply, but experts predict demand for social housing will soon explode under the state government’s plan to gradually demolish and replace Victoria’s 44 existing public housing towers and additional walk-up buildings with new community housing estates by 2051.

Leading the conversation is design and research practice OFFICE, who believe the prioritisation of new community housing buildings — over the renovation and expansion of existing public housing — will increase homelessness in Victoria and be costlier to the taxpayer.

This is the basis of their ‘Retain Repair Reinvest’ strategy developed by the registered charity on a pro bono basis.

OFFICE has hypothetically applied this strategy to three public housing buildings to date: Barak Beacon Estate in Port Melbourne (since demolished and undergoing redevelopment); Ascot Vale Estate; and most recently the Flemington Estate, due to be demolished this year.

The latter feasibility study alone, released in October 2024, argues the Flemington Estate could be sufficiently updated, and expanded with infill housing, for about $300 million less than the cost of demolishing and entirely replacing the existing buildings.

OFFICE directors Simon Robinson and Steve Mintern are the first to admit that most of Victoria’s existing public housing buildings are currently not fit for purpose. The 1960s towers are rundown, cold in winter, and sweltering in summer, but OFFICE believes they could be comfortable and energy efficient with the appropriate renovations.

At a time where homelessness is rising (up 14 per cent in Victoria between 2020-21 and 2022-23, according to a Council to Homeless Persons report), experts say investing in public housing — rather than transitioning to a predominantly community housing model — is critical.

Both styles of development fall under the banner of social housing, but public housing is operated by the state government and has lower rents capped at 25 per cent of a tenant’s income.

‘Public housing rents are also indefinite leases, and the allocation is for priority waitlist housing applicants,’ explains Simon Robinson, architect and director of OFFICE.

‘Community housing is run by housing associations [that are] not-for-profit organisations. Generally, the rent is capped at 30 per cent of the tenant’s income, and they only have to take a percentage of the high priority waitlist, so they can be more selective of who gets access to the housing.

‘You can be more easily evicted from those arrangements, as well.’

Victoria already has the lowest proportion of social housing in Australia, accounting for three per cent of all dwellings — below the national average of 4.2 per cent.

In contrast, social rental housing makes up over 15 per cent of all housing stock in the United Kingdom, over 20 per cent in Denmark and Austria, and almost 35 per cent in the Netherlands, according to the OECD Affordable Housing Database.

Under the state government’s plan, the number of social housing units on the rebuilt estates will increase by a minimum 10 per cent, but they will sit alongside affordable and market rental homes.

‘Some of this new housing will be “affordable”, although there is no legal definition of what that means,’ says Simon.

‘The size of the [social housing] units has also not been stipulated… So, there could be more one-bedroom units built, but fewer three-bedroom units, meaning the estate is actually housing a lower population than before.’

The market rental homes will be built, managed, and monetised by property developers, who will lease the land from Homes Victoria (the state’s public housing operator) for 40 years under a ‘Ground Lease Model.’

OFFICE also point to the potential social issues of fully replacing Victoria’s public housing towers, which will require all current tenants to be relocated into alternative housing for several years — a process that is already well underway.

Their Retain Repair Reinvest strategy puts forward alternative options to minimise these disruptions.

‘The most obvious, and probably straightforward proposal, is to actually build the new infill housing first, relocate the existing residents to that, and then refurbish the towers,’ says Simon. ‘At least they’re staying within their community.’

There are anecdotal reports of Flemington tenants being relocated up to 20 kilometres away, despite initial communications outlining residents would receive housing offers within their local area.

‘It is a disruption, probably for a couple of years in reality, but it’s much less of a disruption than being moved to Truganina, which is currently the type of plan that people are getting put forward to them,’ says Simon.

When these residents are moved from their longstanding neighbourhoods, OFFICE says the entire community suffers.

‘Imagine Richmond without the Vietnamese community… What would Fitzroy be like if it didn’t have the Indigenous community?’ says Steve Mintern, landscape architect and OFFICE co-founder.

‘If they demolish the towers, we’re going to end up with a much more boring, white city, and I don’t think that’s the city that anyone should be aspiring to.’

So why isn’t the government adopting the proposed Retain Repair Reinvest strategy?

The answer, according to OFFICE, lies in the state government no longer wanting to manage public housing.

‘When the state government manages public housing, they are responsible for maintaining the buildings and organising new tenants — all the admin that comes with owning a building,’ explains Simon.

Community housing also costs the state government significantly less than public housing.

OFFICE says community housing residents often pay their rent using federal government-funded Commonwealth Rent Assistance, which is not available to public housing tenants.

‘A big part of their income is through Commonwealth Rent Assistance… Community housing residents get given that by the federal government, and that then goes directly to the community housing provider,’ says Steve.

‘So basically, the federal government is supporting those community housing associations, whereas they don’t do the same thing for public housing.

‘[We argue] that the federal government is actually funding the community housing providers.’

The rebuilt estates will also financially benefit property developers, who will monetise new private housing on site, and be granted a blank slate for construction.

‘A lot of their strategy has been undertaken through conversation with developers who don’t prioritise the retention of buildings,’ says Steve.

‘If the developer is given a site that’s already got a building and a community, and then they’ve got to manage that, then it is a lot more work [for them], but ultimately it is easier and cheaper [for the community], as our work shows.’

Demolition of the Flemington Estate is still planned for late 2025.

The fight continues, but not without progress.

Following media coverage on OFFICE’s Ascot Vale Estate feasibility study, this development was quietly removed from the planned demolitions list on the Homes Victoria website and part of the estate was refurbished.

‘But the residents are aware that all it takes is one more policy announcement and then their homes might get removed again, so they’re definitely not feeling at ease, but I think, for now, they feel a bit safer than they did a few years ago,’ says Steve.

OFFICE will continue conducting its refurbishment feasibility studies with plans to assess more buildings nationwide as a means of addressing Australia’s public housing shortage.

‘If you owned a house, you would ask yourself, “Should I knock this down or do I want to add an extension?” and you’d run the numbers and assess which one is going to be the most cost effective… It’s basic logic to do these things,’ says Steve.

‘It’s not a revolution that we’re putting forward… The concept of “don’t knock down buildings that are structurally sound and can be upgraded” is pretty standard practice in lots of parts of Europe and North America, as well.

‘Unfortunately, Victoria is just a long way behind.’

An edited version of this story first appeared in The Design Files Magazine, Issue 02.